The Basics of Climate Change

Review of climate change policy of Pakistan

1. Introduction

Climate change resulting from an increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels and other human activities has become a major worldwide concern. It is particularly so for Pakistan because climate change is posing a direct threat to its water security, food security and energy security. The country's vulnerability to such adverse impacts is likely to increase considerably in the coming decades as the average global temperature, which increased by 0.6 °C over the past century, is projected to increase further by 1.1 to 6.4 °C by the end of the current century.

A Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC) was set up by the Planning Commission of Pakistan in October 2008 with the view to take stock of country's situation in relation to climate change; to contribute to the formulation of a climate change policy that would assist the government in achieving sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing climate change threats so as to ensure water security, food security and energy security of the country; and to recommend policy measures for promoting large scale Adaptation and Mitigation efforts, raising awareness of various stakeholders; and enhancing the capacities of relevant national institutions.Organic kush

Drawing upon the best available expertise in the country, the Task Force set up 9 Working Groups (WGs) comprising some 40 experts. Each WG headed by a TFCC member was assigned to look into some particular aspects relevant to the TFCC mandate. Based on the inputs of the above WGs and the deliberations of the Task Force in its various meetings, the TFCC Secretariat has prepared a 76-page report which takes stock of Pakistan's status as a GHG emitter, brings out its key vulnerabilities to climate change, recommends appropriate adaptation and mitigation policy measures, and highlights various ongoing and planned activities that implicitly address the issues of climate change. The report identifies main objectives for Pakistan's climate change policy, reviews the country's existing organizational structure for addressing issues of climate change, and recommends measures to improve its ability to face the challenge. It takes cognizance of the existing capacity of various national and international organizations in the country and identifies Pakistan's needs for international cooperation in terms of capacity building, technology transfer and financial support for major Adaptation and Mitigation activities. Salient points of the report are summarised here.

2. Objectives of Climate Change Policy of Pakistan

The report identifies the basic elements of Pakistan's climate change policy for the near to medium term future. Salient among those are to:

• Assist the government for sustainable economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges posed by climate change, in particular the threats to Pakistan's water, food and energy security;

• Contribute to the international efforts to check climate change by controlling

Pakistan's own GHG emissions to the maximum extent feasible;

• Help to increase the country's area under forest cover;

• Minimize the risks to the country's population and national economy arising from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events: floods, droughts, tropical storms etc.;

• Help to increase the capacity of national organizations and to make full use of new developments in science & technology for effectively addressing climate change; and

• Identify need for international cooperation and support for addressing issues of climate change.

3. Pakistan's Status as a GHG Emitter

Pakistan's total GHG emissions in 2008 amounted to 309 million tonnes (mt) of Carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, comprising about 54% CO2, 36% Methane, 9% Nitrous Oxide and 1% other gases. The biggest contributor is the energy sector with 50% share, followed by the agriculture sector (39% share), industrial processes (6% share) and other activities (5% share).

Pakistan is a small GHG emitter: It contributes only about 0.8% of the total global GHG emissions. On per capita basis, Pakistan with 1.9 tonnes per capita GHG emissions stands at a level which corresponds to about one-third of the world average, one-fifth of the average for Western Europe and one tenth of the per capita emissions in the U.S., putting it at 135th place in the world ranking of countries on the basis of their per capita GHG emissions. West coast collective Shatter

4. Past and Expected Future Climatic Changes over Pakistan

During the last century, average annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.6 °C, in agreement with the global trend, with the temperature increase over northern Pakistan being higher than over southern Pakistan (0.8 °C versus 0.5 °C). Precipitation over Pakistan also increased on the average by about 25 %.

Studies based on the ensemble outputs of several Global Circulation Models (GCMs) project that the average temperature over Pakistan will increase in the range 1.3-1.5 °C by 2020s, 2.5-2.8 °C by 2050s, and 3.9-4.4 °C by 2080s, corresponding to an increase in average global surface temperature by 2.8-3.4 °C by the turn of the 21st century. Precipitation is projected to increase slightly in summer and decrease in winter with no significant change in annual precipitation. Furthermore, it is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts.